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2017 Hurricane Outlook

Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, but forecast can be uncertain with climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms making predictions particularly difficult.

Forecasters are predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), 5 to 9 potential hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5; winds 111 mph or higher).

Tropical Cyclone

 

 

  • Where should I go to find out what is happening locally?
    When severe weather is forecast, it is important for residents and business owners to monitor the situation and act proactively to protect themselves, their family and their property. Local officials have a variety of ways to get information to the public. Turn into the following:
  • Television Stations
    WBAL, WMAR, WJZ, WBFF, Anne Arundel County’s Community TV station (Channel 98)
  • Radio Stations
    WNAV 1430 AM, WYRE 810 AM, WYPR 88.1 FM, El Zol 99.1 FM, WFSI 107.9 FM, WBAL 1090 AM
  • Social Media
    Twitter: AACO_OEM
Anne Arundel County's Official Guide to Emergency Preparedness has information on emergency preparedness kits, local shelters and evacuation routes, creating a plan including one for your pet, as well as a list of important phone numbers and websites that you should keep handy in the event of an emergency. 

  

Get Involved!

The Anne Arundel County Office of Emergency Management’s (OEMs) primary function is to coordinate resources and facilitate the response and recovery efforts of local, state, federal, and private agencies during emergencies and planned events. As a result, OEM has developed a Volunteer Program to assist in fulfilling these missions.

The OEM Volunteer Program is designed to build a partnerships with individuals who strongly support the mission to enhance disaster preparedness, response, and recovery efforts lead by County Departments.

For more information on a volunteer opportunity please contact Jim Krempel at emkrem00@aacounty.org or (410) 222-0609.

 


 

What is the difference between a Watch and Warning?

 

Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical-storm conditions are possible within the specified area.

Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions are possible within the specified area.

Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical-storm conditions are expected within the specified area.

Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions are expected within the specified area.

 


 

Common Hurricane/Tropical Storm Terminology:

 

Advisory:
Official information issued by tropical cyclone warning centers describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and precautions that should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe: (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones.

Cyclone:
An atmospheric closed circulation rotating counter-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.

Eye:
The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the center of a severe tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud.

Eyewall / Wall Cloud:
An organized band or ring of cumulonimbus clouds that surround the eye, or light-wind center of a tropical cyclone. Eyewall and wall cloud are used synonymously.

Fujiwhara Effect:
The tendency of two nearby tropical cyclones to rotate cyclonically about each other.

Gale Warning:
A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 47 kt (54 mph or 87 km/hr) inclusive, either predicted or occurring and not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

High Wind Warning:
A high wind warning is defined as 1-minute average surface winds of 35 kt (40 mph or 64 km/hr) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or winds gusting to 50 kt (58 mph or 93 km/hr) or greater regardless of duration that are either expected or observed over land.

Hurricane / Typhoon:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 64 kt (74 mph or 119 km/hr) or more. The term hurricane is used for Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones east of the International Dateline to the Greenwich Meridian. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator west of the International Dateline

Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

Hurricane Watch:
An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specific coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds

Landfall:
The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline. Because the strongest winds in a tropical cyclone are not located precisely at the center, it is possible for a cyclone's strongest winds to be experienced over land even if landfall does not occur. Similarly, it is possible for a tropical cyclone to make landfall and have its strongest winds remain over the water. Compare direct hit, indirect hit, and strike

Storm Surge:
An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a hurricane or other intense storm, and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the cyclone. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomic high tide from the observed storm tide.

Storm Tide:
The actual level of sea water resulting from the astronomic tide combined with the storm surge.

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection. A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.

Subtropical Depression:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Subtropical Storm:
A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less

Tropical Storm:
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) ranges from 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) to 63 kt (73 mph or 118 km/hr).

Tropical Storm Warning:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible somewhere within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.